Wednesday, June 15, 2005

Robert Samuelson: "Europe is history's has-been."

Robert Samuelson joins those who are worried about Europe's long-term future, and is sayng so.
Europe's economy is already faltering. In the 1970s annual growth for the 12 countries now using the euro averaged almost 3 percent; from 2001 to 2004 the annual average was 1.2 percent. In 1974 those countries had unemployment of 2.4 percent; in 2004 the rate was 8.9 percent...

...A few countries (Britain, Ireland, the Netherlands) have acted, and there are differences between Eastern and Western Europe. But in general Europe is immobilized by its problems. This is the classic dilemma of democracy: Too many people benefit from the status quo to change it; but the status quo isn't sustainable.
While some might indulge in a bit of pleasure at their discomfort, Samuelson knows better:
All this is bad for Europe -- and the United States. A weak European economy is one reason that the world economy is shaky and so dependent on American growth.
And a declining, statist Europe will be no bulwark against militant Islamists.

Thanks to Rich Lowry at NRO's The Corner for the lead. Unlike Lowry, I don't think that Samuelson's column is a "wonderful blast", but yet another voice added to those who notice the decline of Europe. It isn't good for Europe, and it isn't good for us.

The consequences of a couple hundred years of decline in absolute terms (rather than simply relative to the more dynamic parts of the world) would be lousy. Still, a small number of countries have worked to change things, and more may eventually join. The policies are reversable.

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